Research & Analysis
The edge, written down
Expert breakdowns, strategy notes, and the sharpest signals from the prediction market ecosystem.
Prediction Markets 101: The Questions You're Too Embarrassed to Ask
What a prediction market is A prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell contracts tied to whether a specific event happens. Every contra...
You’ve Been Paying a Tax on Every Bet You’ve Ever Made. Here’s How Much.
There’s a number sitting somewhere in your betting history that nobody has ever shown you....
The Creator Economy Meets Prediction Markets: Why 2026 Will Be the Year of Market Influencers
The Creator Economy Meets Prediction Markets: Why 2026 Will Be the Year of Market Influencers I've spent the last decade as a semi-professional daily ...
Best Prediction Markets in 2026: Complete Comparison of All 10 Major Platforms
June 2026 was the single busiest month in the history of this industry. Robinhood’s exchange venture Rothera went live June 4. The CFTC approved Proph...
Polymarket vs ProphetX: Broad CFTC Exchange or Sports-Native Peer-to-Peer Exchange?
ProphetX pulled it off. On June 11, 2026 the CFTC approved it as both a designated contract market and a clearinghouse, the first sports-native exchan...
Polymarket vs Underdog Predict: Broad Markets or DFS Integration?
Underdog Predict exists for one type of person: someone who already has the Underdog Fantasy app open. It lives as a tab inside the same app as pick’e...
Polymarket vs OG.com: Two Crypto-Adjacent Prediction Markets Compared
Crypto.com wants a piece of prediction markets badly enough that it built a whole separate brand for it. OG.com launched February 3, 2026, powered and...
Polymarket vs Novig: Established CFTC Exchange or Peer-to-Peer Sports Upstart?
Novig got its CFTC license. On June 16, 2026, the agency designated Novig’s Ludlow Exchange LLC as a contract market, one of the fastest approvals on ...
Polymarket vs Coinbase Predict: Two Crypto-Native Approaches Compared
Two platforms courting the same crypto-native trader, built on opposite architectures. Polymarket owns its exchange: it bought QCEX, a CFTC-licensed e...
Polymarket vs FanDuel Predicts: Political Markets or Sportsbook Brand?
FanDuel Predicts killed its best feature. Through early June 2026, its $25 welcome bonus required no deposit at all; you verified your identity and go...
Polymarket vs DraftKings Predictions: Crypto-Native Exchange or Sportsbook-Style Prediction Markets?
DraftKings Predictions will not sell you a sports contract if you live in a state where DraftKings Sportsbook operates. Read that again, because it de...
Polymarket vs Robinhood: Crypto-Native Exchange or Brokerage Integration?
By June 2026, Polymarket’s regulated U.S. platform was clearing over $200 million in daily volume and passed a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate....
Kalshi vs ProphetX: CFTC Exchange or Sports-Native Peer-to-Peer?
ProphetX pulled it off. On June 11, 2026, the CFTC approved it as both a designated contract market and a clearinghouse, the first sports-native excha...
Kalshi vs Underdog Predict: Broad Categories or DFS Integration?
Underdog Predict lives inside the Underdog Fantasy app, one tab over from the pick’em contests and best ball drafts that built one of the biggest DFS ...
Kalshi vs OG.com: Established Exchange or Crypto.com-Powered Brokerage?
OG.com is Crypto.com’s swing at prediction markets, launched February 3, 2026 and powered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-reg...
Kalshi vs Novig: CFTC Regulated or Peer-to-Peer Sweepstakes?
Novig got its CFTC exchange license. On June 16, 2026, the agency designated Novig’s Ludlow Exchange LLC as a contract market, one of the fastest appr...
Kalshi vs Coinbase Predict: Direct Access or Crypto Integration?
Every trade you place on Coinbase Predict executes on Kalshi’s order book. That single fact frames this whole comparison. Coinbase Financial Markets i...
Kalshi vs FanDuel Predicts: Which Prediction Market Fits Your Strategy?
FanDuel Predicts is what happens when the biggest US sportsbook partners with the biggest US derivatives exchange. It’s a joint venture between FanDue...
Kalshi vs DraftKings Predictions: Which Sports Prediction Market Wins?
Start with the fact that decides this comparison for most readers: DraftKings Predictions only offers sports contracts in 18 states, and they’re exact...
Kalshi vs Robinhood: Direct Exchange or Brokerage Routing?
For a year, “Kalshi vs Robinhood” was a trick question. Robinhood routed every event contract to Kalshi’s order book, so you were comparing Kalshi to ...
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?
A year ago this was the coin-flip comparison in prediction markets. It isn’t anymore. In May 2026, Kalshi did $17.9 billion in monthly turnover to Pol...
How Does OG.com Work? A Complete Guide for New Traders
OG.com is Crypto.com’s standalone prediction market platform, live since February 3, 2026. Five months in, it has carved out a specific identity: spor...
How to Withdraw from OG.com: A Complete Guide
OG.com charges nothing to withdraw. Bank transfers land in 1-3 business days, debit card withdrawals often arrive within hours, and crypto withdrawals...
OG.com Fees: A Complete Breakdown for 2026
OG.com’s entire fee schedule fits in one sentence: $0.02 per contract to open, $0.02 per contract to close early, and $0 at settlement, win or lose. N...
Is OG.com Legal? The Complete 2026 Breakdown
OG.com is legal in 48 states plus Washington, D.C. It operates under federal CFTC regulation through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), th...
How to Sign Up for OG.com: A Step-by-Step Guide
Signing up for OG.com takes 10-15 minutes for most people, and the account you finish with is the same one that collects the up to $100 welcome bonus....
Is OG.com Legit? Inside Crypto.com’s Standalone Prediction Market
Yes, OG.com is legit. It runs on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing ...
OG.com Promo Code 2026: How the $100 Welcome Bonus Works
OG.com pays new users up to $100 in bonuses, and unlike most welcome offers in this space, the money is tied entirely to trading volume. You get your ...
OG.com Review 2026
OG.com is the newest of the major CFTC-regulated prediction market platforms, and the most aggressively built. Crypto.com spun it out of the main app ...
How Does Novig Work? A Complete Guide for New Traders
Novig looks like a sportsbook, trades like an exchange, and currently operates under a legal structure different from both. That last part is changing...
How to Withdraw from Novig: A Complete Guide
Withdrawing from Novig, technically “redeeming” under the current sweepstakes structure, is free, reliable, and usually done inside 48 hours. The plat...
Novig Fees: A Complete Breakdown for 2026
Novig charges nothing on trades. No commission, no transaction fee, no spread markup. The name is the fee schedule: where a sportsbook builds a 4-5% m...
Is Novig Legal? The Complete 2026 Breakdown
Yes, Novig is legal, and as of June 16, 2026 it holds a federal license that settles the question more decisively than any sweepstakes analysis could....
How to Sign Up for Novig: A Step-by-Step Guide
Signing up for Novig takes about ten minutes, and most of that is identity verification. Three requirements to know upfront: the platform is mobile-on...
Is Novig Legit? Inside the No-Vig Sports Exchange
The strongest answer to “is Novig legit” arrived on June 16, 2026, when the CFTC approved Novig’s Designated Contract Market application. A federal re...
Novig Promo Code 2026: How the Spend $5, Get $50 Offer Works
Five dollars gets you fifty on Novig. The standing welcome offer is Spend $5, Get $50 in Novig Coins, and most promo codes also bundle 1,000 free Novi...
Novig Review 2026
On June 16, 2026, the CFTC approved Novig’s application to run a federally regulated Designated Contract Market through its entity Ludlow Exchange LLC...
How Does FanDuel Predicts Work? A Complete Guide for New Traders
FanDuel Predicts is a joint venture between FanDuel Group and CME Group, launched December 22, 2025. You trade binary Yes/No event contracts on sports...
How to Withdraw from FanDuel Predicts: A Complete Guide
Withdrawing from FanDuel Predicts is free, and it runs on the same payment rails FanDuel already uses for millions of sportsbook and DFS customers. De...
FanDuel Predicts Fees: A Complete Breakdown for 2026
FanDuel Predicts charges one fee: a flat 2% on payouts. Winning settlements and early sell-offs pay it. Losing trades don’t pay anything beyond the lo...
Is FanDuel Predicts Legal? The Complete 2026 Breakdown
FanDuel Predicts is legal in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C. for non-sports event contracts (commodities, financials, economics, crypto). Sports e...
How to Sign Up for FanDuel Predicts: A Step-by-Step Guide
Budget 10 to 15 minutes to get from download to first trade on FanDuel Predicts. The platform is mobile-only, running through a standalone app that’s ...
Is FanDuel Predicts Legit? Inside the FanDuel-CME Group Joint Venture
Yes, FanDuel Predicts is legit, and the case is shorter than most platforms can make. It’s operated by FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a CFTC-register...
FanDuel Predicts Promo Code 2026: The $25 Welcome Bonus, Explained
First, the correction you won’t find on most affiliate pages: FanDuel Predicts’ famous $25 no-deposit bonus is dead. That version, where $25 appeared ...
FanDuel Predicts Review 2026
FanDuel Predicts is the only major prediction market still running on CME Group’s exchange, and that’s now its defining feature. DraftKings left CME i...
How Does DraftKings Predictions Work? A Complete Guide for New Traders
DraftKings Predictions is a sportsbook company’s take on a prediction market: binary Yes/No event contracts on sports, financial, and macroeconomic ou...
How to Withdraw from DraftKings Predictions: A Complete Guide
Withdrawing from DraftKings Predictions is free, and most payouts land within 24–72 hours depending on method. The product runs on the same payments i...
DraftKings Predictions Fees: A Complete Breakdown for 2026
DraftKings Predictions charges a tiered per-contract commission: $0.01 per contract when the price is between $0.01–$0.19 or $0.97–$0.99, and $0.02 pe...
Is DraftKings Predictions Legal? The Complete 2026 Breakdown
Yes, DraftKings Predictions is legal. It operates under federal CFTC regulation through GUS III LLC d/b/a DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-registered In...
How to Sign Up for DraftKings Predictions: A Step-by-Step Guide
Ten minutes, start to first trade. That’s the realistic timeline for a brand-new DraftKings Predictions account, including identity verification. If y...
Is DraftKings Predictions Legit? Inside the Sportsbook Giant’s Event Contract Play
Yes. DraftKings Predictions is operated by GUS III LLC, a CFTC-registered Introducing Broker and NFA member, and since June 26, 2026 its contracts tra...
DraftKings Predictions Promo Code 2026: The Welcome Bonus and What Else Is Available
There is no DraftKings Predictions promo code, and you don’t need one. The current welcome offer is Spend $5, Get $25 Instantly in Predictions Dollars...
DraftKings Predictions Review 2026
On June 26, 2026, DraftKings stopped renting exchange infrastructure and started owning it. DKeX, the company’s proprietary CFTC-licensed exchange bui...