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Platform Reviews

Kalshi vs FanDuel Predicts: Which Prediction Market Fits Your Strategy?

PredictQ Team
· 6 min read

By PredictQ Team // Updated: July 2026

FanDuel Predicts is what happens when the biggest US sportsbook partners with the biggest US derivatives exchange. It’s a joint venture between FanDuel Group and CME Group, launched December 22, 2025, with every contract executing on CME’s CFTC-regulated exchange. Non-sports markets reached all 50 states plus DC by mid-January 2026.

Sports is where the asterisk lives. Like DraftKings, FanDuel refuses to offer sports contracts anywhere its sportsbook holds a license. Sports markets on Predicts run in exactly 18 states: Alabama, Alaska, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, and Utah. Everywhere else, Predicts is a non-sports product.

One more update worth flagging up top: the famous $25 no-deposit bonus is gone. The current offer (promo window June 9 through July 20, 2026) still pays $25, but now you have to deposit and place a real-money trade first, and unused bonus funds vanish after seven days. Still decent. No longer the free lunch it was.

Quick Verdict

Kalshi is the better platform for anyone who wants prediction markets as a trading pursuit. More categories, more states for sports, desktop access, and exchange economics that reward limit orders. FanDuel Predicts earns its place in two situations: you’re in one of its 18 sports states and want the FanDuel experience, or you want CME’s commodities and financial benchmark contracts (gold, natural gas, S&P 500, EUR/USD) that Kalshi doesn’t list at the same depth. Otherwise, Kalshi.

Snapshot

  1. Structure: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse. FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC is a registered futures commission merchant in a joint venture with CME Group; contracts execute on CME’s exchange.
  2. Welcome bonus: Kalshi, trade $10 and get $10. FanDuel, $25 bonus requiring signup, a deposit, and a real-money trade; unused bonus expires in 7 days.
  3. States: Kalshi runs nationwide federally, with sports blocked in Michigan and contested in New York. FanDuel is 50 states for non-sports, 18 states for sports.
  4. Markets: Kalshi covers politics, sports, economics, crypto, weather, climate, culture. FanDuel covers sports, commodities, financials, economics, crypto. No political markets.
  5. Fees: Kalshi’s formula peaks at $1.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents and shrinks at extremes. FanDuel charges a flat 2% on payouts, nothing on losses.
  6. Platform: Kalshi runs on web and mobile. FanDuel Predicts is mobile-only.

How They’re Different

The JV structure is more than branding. FanDuel co-owns the venture with CME rather than just renting exchange access, which signals Flutter intends to stay in this category. For a user, though, the experience is a broker app in front of CME’s exchange.

Markets split cleanly. Kalshi owns breadth: it’s the only one of the two with political markets, weather, climate, and culture. FanDuel owns the CME angle: real commodity and financial benchmark contracts that Kalshi doesn’t match. A trader who wants to take a position on gold or EUR/USD through an event-contract interface has a genuine reason to hold a Predicts account.

The fee structures punish different behavior. FanDuel’s flat 2% on payouts is easy to understand and brutal on favorites. Buy a contract at $0.85 and win, and the 2% haircut on your $1.00 payout eats a meaningful slice of a 15-cent gross profit. Kalshi’s formula does the opposite: cheap at extremes, most expensive at 50/50, and capped at $1.75 per 100 contracts even there, with limit orders paying a quarter of that. If you trade favorites, Kalshi is clearly cheaper. If you only ever buy mid-priced longshots and lose (no fee on losses at FanDuel), the math gets friendlier, but that’s a grim way to save on fees.

Platform access matters more than people expect. FanDuel Predicts has no desktop or web version. Kalshi runs both. If you research on a laptop, trade on a laptop.

Funding note: FanDuel discontinued credit card processing across all its products in March 2026. Kalshi takes ACH and debit. Nobody here wants your credit card, which is probably for the best.

When to Pick Kalshi

  • You’re in a FanDuel Sportsbook state, where Predicts won’t show you a sports market.
  • You want political, weather, climate, or culture markets.
  • You trade favorites, where FanDuel’s 2% payout fee stings most.
  • You want desktop trading and limit orders.
  • You want your bonus in real funds with no seven-day fuse.

Sign up HERE.

When to Pick FanDuel Predicts

  • You’re in one of the 18 sports states and prefer FanDuel’s sportsbook-style presentation.
  • You want commodities and financial benchmarks (gold, natural gas, S&P 500, EUR/USD) via CME listings.
  • You’re already in the FanDuel ecosystem and want one more product on a familiar account.
  • The current $25 offer is live and you’ll genuinely deposit and trade within the window.
  • Mobile-only doesn’t bother you.

Sign up HERE.

Can You Use Both?

Sure, and in non-sportsbook states it’s an easy call: $35 in stacked bonuses and complementary catalogs. FanDuel’s CME commodities sit next to Kalshi’s politics and weather with almost no overlap. In FanDuel Sportsbook states, Predicts shrinks to a non-sports app and the case for holding both weakens accordingly.

Bottom Line

FanDuel Predicts is a serious product backed by the two biggest names in their respective industries, and the CME commodities angle is genuinely unique. But the 18-state sports limit, the mobile-only interface, the payout fee that taxes winners hardest, and a bonus that lost its no-deposit hook all point the same direction.

Kalshi gives a trader more of everything: more states, more markets, more order control, and fees that reward skill instead of taxing it. Pick the exchange built for trading, then let FanDuel be your commodities side dish. Kalshi signups HERE, FanDuel Predicts HERE.

Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of July 2026. Kalshi operates a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and clearinghouse; its sports contracts are blocked or contested in several states. FanDuel Predicts is operated by FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant, in joint venture with CME Group, with trades executing on CME Group’s CFTC-regulated exchange. Bonus terms current for the June 9 - July 20, 2026 promo period; confirm the live offer before depositing. Trading event contracts involves significant risk. This content is for informational purposes only. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.