By PredictQ Team // Updated: July 2026
Kalshi is the largest regulated prediction market in the United States, and in 2026 the gap is widening. The exchange confirmed a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation in May, printed record volume in June on the back of the World Cup, and out-traded Polymarket by more than two to one in May ($17.9B vs. $7.1B in monthly turnover). If you trade event contracts in the US, Kalshi is the default venue. That makes it worth a hard look instead of a lazy endorsement.
This review covers what Kalshi is, what it costs, what you can actually trade, where the legal fights stand, and where the platform comes up short.
What Kalshi Is
Kalshi is a federally regulated event contract exchange based in New York City. Founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara came out of MIT in 2018 and spent two years working with regulators before launching anything. KalshiEX LLC received Designated Contract Market (DCM) status from the CFTC in November 2020, the same designation held by CME Group, and opened public trading in 2021. It was the first exchange to hold that designation for retail event contracts. Since August 2024, Kalshi has also cleared its own trades through Kalshi Klear, its CFTC-registered clearinghouse.
What that buys you as a trader: federal oversight, customer funds held in segregated accounts at US banks, and every contract category cleared through CFTC review before it lists. That posture separates Kalshi from offshore books and from platforms that spent years operating in gray zones. It matters for fund security, for how your gains are taxed, and for whether the venue holding your money is still standing in five years.
The backers point the same direction. Sequoia, Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis, and now a $1 billion round at $22 billion, with reports of talks at roughly double that. Mansour says an IPO won’t happen before 2027. This is infrastructure being built for the long haul.
How Trading Works
Every Kalshi market is a Yes or No question with a written resolution rule. “Will the Fed cut rates at the September FOMC meeting?” Buy Yes if you think it happens, No if you don’t. Contracts price between $0.01 and $0.99, and the price is the market’s implied probability. Yes at $0.65 means the market says 65%. If the event happens, the contract pays $1.00. If it doesn’t, it goes to zero.
You can also sell before resolution. Bought Yes at $0.40 and the market moves to $0.70? Sell at $0.70 and lock the profit without carrying resolution risk to the finish line. That one feature is the biggest structural difference from a sportsbook, where your exits are a lowball cashout offer or nothing.
Orders come in two types. Quick (market) orders fill immediately at the best available price. Limit orders rest on the book at your price until matched, and they qualify for the lower maker fee. More on that below.
Markets and Liquidity
Kalshi runs hundreds of active markets at any given time across politics, economics, sports, weather, climate, tech, and culture. Sports has been the volume engine since it launched in January 2025, and the 2026 World Cup pushed June to a monthly record.
Where the depth actually sits:
Economics and finance. Inflation prints, Fed decisions, jobs reports, plus S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index markets that trade on a discounted fee schedule. Some of the tightest books on the platform.
Politics. Elections, congressional control, cabinet moves, Fed chair markets. A flagship category since the courts cleared political contracts in 2024.
Sports. Game outcomes, championship futures, and player markets across NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, NCAA, golf, and MMA. Also the category tangled up in state-level litigation, covered below.
Weather and climate. Daily temperature thresholds, hurricane formation, named storm counts. Small, but nobody else does it seriously.
Culture and tech. AI milestones, music charts, award shows, box office. Thinner books, real edge for people who actually follow these industries.
Liquidity varies a lot by market. Major Fed and election contracts carry hundreds of millions in cumulative volume. A niche culture market might show a dime-wide spread and a shallow book. Check recent volume and the bid-ask gap before you size anything.
Fees
Two numbers to know. Taker fee: 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price), rounded up to the next cent. Maker fee: a quarter of that, 0.0175 x contracts x price x (1 - price). The current schedule took effect February 5, 2026.
The formula peaks at 50 cents and fades to almost nothing at the extremes. Worst case is $1.75 per 100 contracts on a coin-flip market. The same 100 contracts at $0.90 cost $0.63 to take. At $0.98, pennies. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 markets run at half rate, maxing out at $0.88 per 100 contracts.
For context, a standard -110/-110 sportsbook line bakes in roughly 4.5% vig. Even paying full taker fees at the worst possible price point, you’re at 1.75% of notional on Kalshi, and limit orders cut that to a quarter.
The rest of the cost stack is light. ACH deposits and withdrawals are free. Wires are free with a $1,000 minimum. Debit card deposits carry up to a 2% processing fee. Crypto transfers may include third-party fees disclosed at the time of the transaction. There is no settlement fee, so a winning contract pays the full $1.00.
Deposits and Withdrawals
Kalshi supports more funding methods than most regulated exchanges:
ACH bank transfer (via Plaid or Aeropay, free)
Debit card (Visa or Mastercard, up to 2% fee)
Apple Pay or Google Pay
Wire transfer (free, $1,000 minimum)
PayPal and Venmo (US users only)
Cash App (US users only)
Crypto (via Zero Hash)
Minimum deposit is $10 for most methods, $1,000 for wires. ACH for routine funding, debit card if you need to trade this minute.
Withdrawals are narrower: bank transfer, debit card, and crypto. Bank transfers are free and land in a few business days. Debit card and crypto withdrawals typically arrive within 30 minutes.
One mechanic to know: Kalshi holds deposited funds before they can be withdrawn to a different method. Deposit via debit card and withdraw to the same card, and funds free up once the deposit settles. Deposit via debit card and withdraw to your bank, and you wait two days after settlement. Standard fraud control for a regulated platform, and it only applies to principal, never to profits.
Mobile and Desktop
We’ve traded Kalshi on both the iOS app and the web platform. Both hold up. The web interface is clean, search works, and the order book is readable once you know the basics. Someone coming from a sportsbook can get oriented in the app in a few minutes.
The gap: no live phone or chat support. Customer service runs on email and in-app messaging with a solid help center. Our emails got answered in about five hours. Fine for a financial platform, a real step down from 24/7 sportsbook chat.
Where Kalshi Is Available
Federally, Kalshi is legal and operating across the United States. At the state level, sports contracts are the battleground, and the map keeps moving.
As of July 2026: a Michigan court issued a temporary order in late June blocking Kalshi’s sports contracts while the state AG’s lawsuit proceeds. On July 8, a New York judge denied Kalshi’s bid to block state gambling enforcement, so the NY gaming commission can keep treating its sports contracts as subject to state licensing rules. Nevada, Massachusetts, and Kentucky disputes remain live, and the Ninth Circuit is weighing sports contracts offered on tribal lands. Kalshi has real wins on the board too, most notably a Third Circuit ruling in April 2026 affirming federal preemption in New Jersey, the first appellate decision on the question.
Non-sports markets (politics, economics, weather, culture) are broadly available. The practical move: check Kalshi’s in-app eligibility for your state before funding. Availability can flip with a single ruling.
Pros
First CFTC-designated exchange for retail event contracts, clearing its own trades since 2024
Customer funds segregated at US banks
Fees top out at $1.75 per 100 contracts, a fraction of sportsbook vig
Hundreds of markets with the deepest liquidity in US prediction markets
No settlement fee, free ACH in and out
1099-B tax treatment (capital gains) rather than W-2G (gambling winnings)
Well-built app and web interface
Cons
Sports availability shifts state by state as litigation plays out
No live phone support
The $10 sign-up bonus is small next to sportsbook welcome offers
Maker/taker fees take some learning if you come from books
Thin liquidity in niche markets
Who It’s For
Kalshi is the natural starting point for any US trader new to prediction markets, and a serious tool for anyone who wants to express views on real-world events without paying sportsbook vig. The federal backing matters more than people realize if you plan to trade in size or hold positions for months.
If what you want is parlays and same-game action, Kalshi will feel foreign. The exchange model pays off patience and information edge, the opposite of the fast-twitch product sportsbooks are optimized for. Know which trader you are before you sign up.
Bottom Line
Kalshi is the most credible prediction market operating in the US today: the longest regulated track record, the deepest books, the cleanest fee structure, and now a $22 billion valuation behind it. The state-by-state sports fight will grind on through 2026 and beyond, but the federal foundation is solid.
Getting started is cheap. Claim the sign-up bonus, deposit a small amount via ACH, and spend your first week finding the category where you actually know more than the market. Sign up HERE and you’ll have an account in minutes.
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. We only partner with platforms we evaluate as legitimate, but compensation does not influence our editorial analysis. Information was accurate as of July 2026. Prediction market rules, fees, and state availability change quickly, so confirm current terms and eligibility on the platform itself before depositing or trading. Event contract trading involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all participants. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.