By PredictQ Team // Updated: July 2026
Yes, Underdog Predict is legit. It’s a CFTC-regulated prediction market operated by Underdog through a registered Futures Commission Merchant structure, with event contracts currently listed on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a federally registered exchange. Since March 2026, Underdog also owns its own CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse (Aristotle Exchange), which adds a second layer of regulatory infrastructure most competitors don’t have.
The longer answer is about what Underdog is as a company, how Predict fits into a business that’s actively reinventing itself, and a few operational realities worth knowing before you put money in.
The Regulatory Framework
Underdog Predict operates under federal CFTC oversight through a layered structure:
- Underdog Predict is a registered FCM (Futures Commission Merchant). FCM status lets Underdog offer event contracts to retail customers and route them to a registered exchange.
- Trades execute on CDNA, a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market operated by Crypto.com. It’s the same exchange that powers OG.com.
- Underdog owns Aristotle Exchange following the March 9, 2026 acquisition. Aristotle holds both DCM and DCO registrations with the CFTC, giving Underdog the infrastructure to eventually run its own exchange. The migration off CDNA has been announced but not confirmed complete as of July 2026.
- UDM Services, LLC powers the integration between the consumer app and CDNA.
This puts Underdog Predict on the same federal footing as Kalshi and Polymarket. CFTC regulation is the strongest designation available for U.S. prediction markets, and federal courts have increasingly held that it preempts state gambling law for registered event contracts.
Leadership and Track Record
Jeremy Levine founded Underdog in 2020 and still runs it as CEO. He’s taken the company from startup to one of the largest private sports companies in the U.S. Rishi Garg joined as CFO in September 2025, and Kimberly Pointer Corbett as CMO the same month. Underdog ranked #3 on LinkedIn’s Top Startups list in October 2025, up from #15 the year before.
Levine has been publicly direct about the pivot from DFS to prediction markets, including after the Aristotle deal. When a CEO tells you exactly what the strategy is and then executes it in sequence, that’s a trust signal.
Capital and Backing
Underdog is private and doesn’t publish detailed financials, but the resources are visible in what the company has done: built and run a multi-state DFS business at scale, acquired Aristotle Exchange in March 2026 (terms undisclosed, presumably substantial), funded operations through a major restructuring, and signed sports partnerships including a multi-year deal with the St. Louis Blues (October 2025) and one with the Kansas City Royals (September 2025). Major venture firms backed the company through its DFS growth and into the prediction markets pivot.
The Transition, in Sequence
Underdog has compressed a lot of change into eight months. Know the timeline before you sign up:
- Late 2025: Exited state-licensed sports betting. North Carolina sportsbook closed December 16, 2025; Missouri license withdrawn before that state’s December 1 launch.
- September 2, 2025: Underdog Predict went live on CDNA.
- February 2026: Roughly 125 employees laid off, more than 20% of the workforce, including fraud operations, customer support, graphics, marketing, and the draft-based games line.
- March 9, 2026: Acquired Aristotle Exchange, the DCM and DCO behind PredictIt.
The logic is coherent. Federal CFTC regulation beats managing fifty state licensing regimes, and prediction markets give Underdog a bigger footprint with fewer regulatory variables. The risk is equally clear: a company that cut a fifth of its staff mid-pivot carries elevated execution risk. That rarely shows up in day-to-day product reliability, but it’s real context.
Custody and Fund Security
Customer funds sit in regulated banking channels under the CFTC’s requirements for FCMs, segregated from Underdog’s operating capital. Trades clear through CDNA’s DCO infrastructure, which carries its own segregation and risk management rules. If and when Predict moves to Aristotle, clearing moves to Aristotle’s DCO under the same federal framework.
Operational Track Record
Predict has run since September 2025, long enough to judge. The app and exchange integration have been stable with no significant reported outages. Deposits and withdrawals process reliably across debit card, PayPal, Venmo, and Trustly. Markets resolve according to published rules, with CDNA’s settlement framework handling cancelled events and ties the same way it does on OG.com. Support responds through in-app help and email, typically within 24 hours.
Four Things Worth Knowing
First, the CDNA-to-Aristotle migration has no announced completion date. Until it happens, you’re trading through a partnership, not Underdog’s own exchange. Fully regulated either way.
Second, Underdog now owns PredictIt through the Aristotle deal. PredictIt is a politics-focused market that runs separately from Underdog Predict. Same corporate umbrella, distinct products.
Third, the layoffs and pivot create uncertainty about roadmap speed. New features, new market categories, and the migration timeline all depend on execution through the transition.
Fourth, state availability is narrower than Kalshi or Polymarket: 31 states plus DC as of July 2026. Check eligibility before you get attached.
Customer Experience
The day-to-day product backs up the legitimacy case. The Predict integration is polished, KYC follows standard financial-institution practice, terms are published clearly, and responsible trading resources are built in. The combo entry feature linking DFS picks with Predict contracts is genuinely original. And the interface is easier to pick up than a pure financial platform like Kalshi if you’re coming from DFS or sportsbooks.
Bottom Line
By every measure that matters, Underdog Predict is legitimate: CFTC-regulated through a registered FCM, run by a well-funded company with a leadership team that’s been building in sports gaming since 2020, and backed by exchange infrastructure that covers both today (CDNA) and the long term (Aristotle). The short-term execution risk from the pivot is honest to name, and the missing Predict welcome bonus is a real annoyance. Neither is a legitimacy problem.
If you’re in an eligible state and want a prediction market inside an app you already trust, this one holds up. Sign up HERE.
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of July 2026. Underdog Predict is a registered FCM offering event contracts. Trades may be placed on CDNA, a registered DCM, powered by UDM Services, LLC. Trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all participants. This content is for informational purposes only. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.